The nominations for the 81st annual Academy Awards were announced this morning, and while most of the picks are in step with predictions, the Academy also threw in a few shockers — which may change the point spread for awards season highrollers. So here with a list of the Oscar noms and a long-range take on the odds is AllMovie’s own resident awards bookie Perry Seibert.

 
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Harvey Weinstein possesses many traits that make him a first-rate movie-mogul, not least of which is a seemingly preternatural ability to play the Oscar game. During his tenure at Miramax, he was always able to secure nominations for his films, however, since his acrimonious split from that company, he seemed to have lost the magic touch. His new venture, The Weinstein Company, has failed to impress in years past, with such seemingly Oscar-friendly fare as Grace Is Gone, The Great Debaters, and Factory Girl, but today’s Oscar nominations may very well be remembered in Hollywood as The Revenge of Harvey Weinstein. The Reader, a film that was largely shut out of the various guild awards, shocked one and all by securing five nominations including Best Picture and Best Director slots that most figured would be taken by The Dark Knight and Christopher Nolan. In addition, the film earned Kate Winslet her sixth acting nomination when most expected her to instead get the nod for her work in Revolutionary Road. Throw in the thoroughly foreseen inclusion of Penelope Cruz among those up for Best Supporting Actress for another Harvey produced film, and you have a very happy day at The Weinstein Company.

Remember that the Oscars, like the presidential race, are a campaign. Lots of opinions and attitudes about the nominees can change over the next four weeks, but for the moment let’s take a look at how the various races are shaping up.

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams – Doubt
Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis – Doubt
Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler

Forgive the pun, but I doubt either lady from Doubt will take home the prize. Henson won’t win, unless it’s a Benjamin sweep, and that doesn’t seem likely at all at this point. So it’s a throwdown between Cruz and Tomei, and I’d say Tomei as the stripper from The Wrestler is out in front by a nipple ring.

Best Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin – Milk
Robert Downey Jr. – Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road

This will go to Ledger; it’s the second surest lock of the night — the first being that Paul Newman will receive the loudest applause during the annual montage of dead people.

Best Actress:
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie – The Changeling
Melissa Leo – Frozen River
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslet – The Reader

This looked like a sure thing for Winslet, but now things are getting interesting. She still qualifies as the favorite, but it’s surprising that she’s here for The Reader instead of Revolutionary Road — for which she breathlessly accepted a Golden Globe. Also, it’s been over twenty-five years since Streep has won an Oscar, and she would most certainly deserve it for Doubt. And, because the Academy loves ingénues, it’s still possible that Hathaway could steal it.

Best Actor:
Richard Jenkins – The Visitor
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn – Milk
Brad Pitt – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler

It will be Penn and Rourke in a dead heat right to the very end, and that’s especially interesting since neither of them are, by nature, inclined to do the hand shaking and baby kissing expected from them during the next month. It’s possible they could out bad-boy each other, and let Pitt — who’s more than happy to appear anytime, anywhere to help Button’s cause — steal it from them.

Best Director:
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant – Milk
Stephen Daldry – The Reader
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire

It’s hard to believe that Howard or Daldry will take this, and Van Sant can only win it if Milk takes Best Picture as well — something that I personally would love, but that doesn’t seem likely. Fincher is arguably the most technically proficient director of his generation, and Button is the first time he’s made the kind of movie Oscar voters respond to, but Boyle made the kind of film Americans love – a tragedy with a happy ending. Add in that Slumdog bursts with visual energy, and that makes him the early favorite.

Best Picture:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Part of me finds it almost impossible to believe this, but out of the gate, Slumdog would be the favorite. It’s the least difficult, most obviously likable film on the list, the setting is exotic, it’s visually striking, and it leaves viewers with feelings of hope not unlike those emotions stirred in many by Tuesday’s inauguration. Button is a possibility, and Milk is the dark horse, but as of now expect Hollywood to look a whole lot like Bollywood on February 22.