The Allmovie Blog

Box Office Predictions - Lester Burnham Avenges His Wife Edition

Perry Seibert — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 15:42:35 +0000

In a weekend crammed with four new wide releases, the film that sells the most tickets might very well be the genre spoof Superhero Movie. The comedy’s primary competition will be the gambling drama 21, based on Ben Mezrich’s outstanding non-fiction book. Although Kevin Spacey co-produced and co-stars in this movie, there are no bankable performers in the lead roles, making it difficult for 21 to find an audience large enough to overcome the same crowd that opened Meet the Spartans to 18 million just three months ago. The feature length adaptation of Horton Hears a Who should continue to do well seeing as there are no family films out there to compete with it. Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns will fall sharply as the majority of his fans probably turned out for last weekend’s opening, but the inspirational comedy drama should still manage a spot near the top of the box office list. Rounding out the top five should be Stop-Loss, the Iraq war drama from Kimberly Peirce. This is her first feature since Boys Don’t Cry, the film that won Hilary Swank her first Best Actress statuette in 1999, and the film that kept American Beauty from being only the fourth film to sweep the top five Oscars (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Screenplay).

How It Will Look On Monday:
Superhero Movie: 18 Million
21: 15 Million
Horton Hears a Who: 13.5 Million
Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns: 10 Million
Stop-Loss: 6 Million

Box Office Predictions - Dr. Seuss Edition

Perry Seibert — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 18:52:25 +0000

Predicting the box office is a dangerous game
Full of dangerous traps and movies so lame
All the sequels, prequels, and more of the same
That surly my friends you would think they’d feel shame
But this weekend will prove like weekends before
They know what they’re doing, they do know the score
For Horton will surely put butts in the seats
With parents buying plenty of popcorn and treats
45 Million seems a very safe number
Even in the middle of a box office slumber
For the studio to expect, to wish for, to dream
And the suits will let loose with a delightedish scream

People love dinosaurs and humans with spears
And action and spectacle and chases and tears
So the prehistoric hijinx of 10,000 B.C.
Should take in 19 more million you see

But if mixed martial arts are more to your taste
Then Never Back Down you must run to with haste
Add to the film’s probably 9 million dollars
And fill up the theater with whoops and with hollars

Martin Lawrence and Raven Symone will attest
that their film College Road Trip should soak up the rest
Of the family film audience not headed for Seuss
expect a 7 million dollar box office goose

Doomsday the thriller should round out the top five
it’s about scientists keeping humans alive
they quarantine a country to contain the Reaper Virus
Pray for a sequel where they do the same for Miley Cyrus

Box Office Predictions - The Ghosts of 300 Edition

Perry Seibert — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 21:25:13 +0000

One year ago this weekend 300 began its gargantuan assault on the box office, but can any of the films coming out this weekend hope to match that film’s record setting total? In a word, no. But Roland Emmerich’s 10,000 B.C. sure is going to try. Disney should continue to cash in on the audience that made The Gameplan a hit with the Martin Lawrence/Raven Symone family comedy College Road Trip. Will Ferrell should hold on to just enough of his audience to stay in the top five with Semi-Pro. The Bank Job should do solid enough business, on less than 1500 screens, to round out the list alongside Vantage Point.

How it will Look on Monday:
10,000 B.C. 28 Million
College Road Trip: 18 Million
Semi-Pro: 8 Million
The Bank Job: 7 Million
Vantage Point: 6 Million

Box Office Predictions - Valentine Weekend Edition

Perry Seibert — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 11:29:00 +0000

Sure it might be a time for love and romance, but a science fiction film will be the box office champ this weekend. Doug Liman’s Jumper should score big with no other film like it out there in the marketplace. For that same reason the big screen adaptation of The Spiderwick Chronicles has the kind of built-in name recognition that should drive it to within striking distance of the top spot. Step Up 2 The Streets should quietly amass solid attendance numbers thanks to the popularity of the first film. Fool’s Gold will tumble due to the increased competition, but should round out the top five along with Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins.

How It Will Look on Monday:
Jumper: 30 Million
The Spiderwick Chronicles: 28 Million
Step Up 2 The Streets: 14 Million
Fool’s Gold: 10 Million
Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins: 9 Million

The Hottie and the Nottie Sucks, but Not For the Reason You Think

Cammila Alberston — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 18:57:07 +0000

The Paris Hilton vehicle The Hottie and the Nottie opened in theaters last weekend and took home approximately $9,000 dollars, making it possibly the biggest box office bomb of all time.

The basic plot is that Hilton, the hottie, is best friends with Christine Lakin, the nottie. A guy is in love with Hilton, but can’t get over how crappy looking her friend is. Then the friend has a super sweet extreme makeover, takes off her kilo of fug makeup, and becomes equally as hot as Hilton (if still brunette), at which point the guy realizes he’s been in love with the ugly duckling all along. Obviously this movie sucks b#lls, but plenty of reviewers take care to point out how offensive the message of this story is, placing all the girl’s value on her physical beauty and implying she can’t get love without it.

Well, this probably sounds a little cynical but, to me, the dumbed down, superficial comedy based on the Pygmalion template is just another cheap staple of cinema, like Taming of the Shrew stories (when romance based on a ruse or a game turns real) or Prodigal Son stories (when the reckless hero redeems himself but it’s too late to avert tragedy). I don’t defend the theme as valid – I’m with reviewers, the moral is stupid and counter to all reasonable values – but it’s as old as Western storytelling, and certainly as old as film: the boy and girl can’t get together until the weird one transforms from dowdy to beautiful, from unruly to well behaved. Can’t Buy Me Love, She’s All That, Princess Diaries – and it’s by no means restricted to sh!#ty movies, I mean Sabrina, Funny Face, I could even theorize that The Way We Were is based on this premise, except the girl eventually loses the guy because she won’t change. Beauty even wins out in the actual parable of the Ugly Duckling. The happy ending comes when the freakish looking bird grows up to be a fierce looking swan, not when he grows to accept that physical attractiveness is an arbitrary social construct, and what matters is who he is as a person.

Of course, I don’t mean any of this to imply that the general narrowness of American popular beauty standards isn’t worthy of all a reviewer’s ire and then some. It’s bulls#!t, but it’s perpetuated by so much more than a throwaway movie that Paris Hilton is rumored to have paid out of pocket to get a theatrical release for, because it was otherwise destined for direct-to-DVD. In fact, I tend to think that Hilton’s persona is horribly hinged on a sort of mean spirited, post modern celebration of everyone’s hatred for her. She receives loads of attention but is rarely spoken of in anything but a condescending – if not all out vindictive – manner by the media. She’s famous for being stupid, overly sexualized, and rich without having a job. It becomes a really decadent cycle (that’s decadent implying decay, not chocolate cake) because the media continues to promote her on this premise, while simultaneously mocking her for it.

The only person who doesn’t seem to be in on it is her, and if she’s playing dumb, it’s probably at a terrible cost. In that light, it seems like the Hottie and the Nottie promotes backward, destructive thinking no matter what your angle is. At least almost every movie goer in America appears to be doing the best possible thing by ignoring it.

Box Office Predictions - McConaughey vs. Montana vs. Martin Edition

Perry Seibert — Thu, 07 Feb 2008 21:15:31 +0000

With fond memories of How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days, and the fact that women haven’t had a film pitched at them this year since 27 Dresses, the Matthew McConaughey/Kate Hudson romantic action comedy Fool’s Gold should triumph this weekend. The Martin Lawrence vehicle Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins actually opens on more screens than Fool’s Gold, and could possibly take the box office crown. And if the Hannah Montana concert film can hold onto at least 60% of its audience from last weekend it could sneak into the top spot, but since Disney advertised that it would be in theaters for one week only that level of repeat business seems highly unlikely - unless 12 year olds suddenly get drivers licenses. The horror film The Eye will probably drop over 50% from last weekend, but that should still be enough to stay in the top 5. The final spot will most likely be the unstoppable box office powerhouse that is Juno.

How it will look on Monday:
Fool’s Gold: 18 Million
Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins: 16 Million
Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert: 15 Million
The Eye: 6 Million
Juno: 5 Million

Box Office Predictions - Super Bowl Weekend Edition

Perry Seibert — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 20:18:46 +0000

The NFL’s showcase event inevitably takes a bite out of the box office, so expect a good showing for films aimed at women and teens. Meaning of course that the juggernaut that is Hannah Montana should pull off an upset bigger than if the Giants actually take down the Patriots. Although it’s only on a few hundred screens, Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert costs 15 dollars a ticket. This fact should help it to score off the charts when it comes to per screen average, so much so that it wins the weekend. Before the game, the new Jessica Alba horror film The Eye should pull in enough business for the number two spot. Rambo should hold onto enough of its audience from last week to slide into the third spot. Fourth and fifth places should go to a pair of best picture nominees - Juno and There Will Be Blood (which doubles its theater count to 1500).

How It Will Look On Monday:

1. Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert: 15 million
2. The Eye: 12 Million
3. Rambo: 9 Million
4. Juno: 8 Million
5. There Will Be Blood: 8 Million

Box Office Predictions - Oscar Bump Edition

Perry Seibert — Fri, 25 Jan 2008 17:43:13 +0000

The weekend after Oscar nominations are always difficult for those of us who stare into box office crystal balls because the Best Picture nominees go wide again in order to profit from the nods. They rarely actually crack the top 5, but they can draw audiences off of other films that are brand new to theaters. Expect an impressive jump for There Will Be Blood. Paul Thomas Anderson’s film goes to over 800 screens and tied for the most nominations which should equate to somewhere between 8 and 10 million. Michael Clayton and No Country For Old Men should add about 4 million dollars each to their total. The wild card in this discussion is Juno which picked up nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, and Best Screenplay. The film has been performing solidly, and those nominations may get an older crowd that had thus far stayed away from the seemingly teen-oriented film into theaters. The film should take in 8 to 10 million more.

How the top 5 will look on Monday:

Cloverfield: 22 Million
Meet the Spartans: 16 Million
Rambo: 15 Million
27 Dresses: 11 Million
The Bucket List: 10 Million

Box Office Winners

Perry Seibert — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 20:21:09 +0000

This weekend served up no real surprises as far as the box office is concerned, but there are a couple of films that deserve credit for some very impressive numbers:

Juno, nearly doubling the number of theaters it was in from the weekend before, crossed the 50 million mark and is poised to play very strongly for the next couple of months assuming the Academy likes it.

Paul Thomas Anderson’s There Will Be Blood continued to impress with 1.3 million on just 50 screens. The movie just captured the National Society of Film Critics awards for Picture, Director, Actor, and Cinematography, which should help continue the momentum (a reality in movies as much as it is in primary politics) the film has built thanks in large part to one of the most impressive advertising campaigns by any film this year.

The Top 5:
National Treasure: Book of Secrets: 20 Million
I Am Legend: 16.3 Million
Juno: 16.2 Million
Alvin and the Chipmunks: 16 Million
One Missed Call: 13.5 Million

Box Office Predictions

Perry Seibert — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 13:47:03 +0000

Technically, only one new film is entering the box office race this weekend, the American remake of the cell phone horror film One Missed Call. However the strong word of mouth on Juno should, in combination with the film expanding to nearly 2000 screens, make Jason Reitman’s film the big story on Monday morning even if it fails to take in the most money. Alvin and the Chipmunks, the sequel to National Treasure, and I Am Legend should all perform respectably, but might face drops bigger than expected percentage-wise seeing as last weekend fell between Christmas and New Years - often causing a spike in ticket sales.

How it will look on Monday:
National Treasure: Book of Secrets: 19 Million
Alvin and the Chipmunks: 19 Million
Juno: 17 Million
I Am Legend: 15 Million
One Missed Call: 10 Million